Date: Tue, 2 Nov 1999 10:30:03
-0800 (PST) Reply-to: firstname.lastname@example.org From:
Rick Provine <email@example.com> To: Multiple
recipients of list <firstname.lastname@example.org> Subject: Re:
I think this will go much like the laserdisc market went, only better.
Laser never caught on as a consumer format, but was absolutely necessary
for collecting feature film in something like its original form
(widescreen, decent audio, decent picture quality, commentary, etc.) DVD
as least has the advantage of more widespread consumer acceptance, due
mostly to the industry's unprecedented support across companies for the
format (Circuit City excepted).
If you want to collect feature film, then DVD is an absulute must due to
its features and picture quality. Because of the large install base of
DVD-ROm drives, there is a broader acceptance of the format. The rap on
laser was that it couldn't record. That was set up as a condition for the
success of any new format. But most people never record with their VCR's.
And they are now realizing this.
We may never see the more esoteric titles on DVD, but VHS isn't going away.
Multiple formats is part of doing media these days, and why we all have jobs.
At 08:46 AM 11/2/99 -0800, Gary Handman wrote:
>In my frantic desire to justify buying ten new DVD players ("cheapie" Sony
>DVP S330's about $250 a pop...if you care), I began nosing around industry
>other trade sources in search of indicators of the viability of this
>medium. Some interesting stats from an Oct. 18, 1999 Phillips Businss
>Projected growth of DVD Content and Devices:
>DVD Discs in U.S. and Europe for '99 -- 77 million units (sold)
>DVD Discs expected by 20002 -- more than 2 billion units (sold)
>Worldwide DVD Devices for 99' -- 17 million (sold)(I think this may include
>DVD-ROM drives as well as DVD players)
>Worldwide DVD Devices expected by 2005 - 144 million (sold)
>The August 16, 1999 Phillips report quotes the International Recording
>Media Association in its projection that "there will be nearly 25 million
>DVD players and a billions discs sold worldwide by 2003
>The Phillips report for May 14, 1999 indicated the following projections:
>US DVD-ROM Title releases (I think this includes both movies and games?)
>1998 - 100
>1999 - 750
>2000 - 2000
>2001 - 4000
>2002 - 7000
>Still, one wonders how much of the current body of analog
>video--theatrical, documentary, educational,etc.--is likely to make it over
>the fence into digitaldom... Somehow, I have this continuing fear that a
>lot of wonderful and weird will never make the transition...It occurs to me
>that, like Neanderthal and Homo Sapiens, we're likely to see the
>evolutionary dead-end and the evolutionary vanguard existing in uneasy
>tandem for some time to come.
>Media Resources Center
>UC Berkeley 94720-6000
>"Everything wants to become television" (James Ulmer -- Teletheory)
Rick E. Provine
Director for Media||Robertson Media Center
Clemons Library||University of Virginia
VOICE 804.924.8814||FAX 804.924.7468