Re: [Videolib] Long live DVD... for five more years

Dennis Doros (milefilms@gmail.com)
Thu, 6 Nov 2008 16:15:45 -0500

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Dear John,
Hmmm. There are people who think even Blu-ray might go before THAT date!
Five years is now an exceedingly long time for technology and the advent of
Itune (and mp3) over CDs is proof that a great new concept can override any
predictions.

Dennis

On Thu, Nov 6, 2008 at 2:18 PM, John Fossett <jfossett@krl.org> wrote:

> Did anyone see this? Thoughts?
>
> John
>
>
>
> http://videoeta.com/news.html?id=2609&rss=1
>
> BLU-RAY DISC NEWS
>
> *Long live DVD... for five more years*
>
> [image: http://videoeta.com/images/news/dvd_tombstone.jpg]
>
> *Posted October 23, 2008 at 12:09 PM *
>
> By John Couture <http://videoeta.com/about/staff/john.html>
>
> I was sitting in a meeting the other day, and someone mentioned that Adams
> Media Research <http://www.adamsmediaresearch.com/>, a well respected
> research firm in the home entertainment world, predicts that DVD will die a
> swift death sometime in 2013. That's five years from now.
>
> I could drone on and on about Blu-ray market penetration trends and DVD
> adoption models and how they translate to the current situation, but the
> point of all that would be simply that DVD is already considered to be a
> mature product line and Blu-ray will inevitably replace the DVD much like
> DVD replaced VHS, CDs replaced cassette tapes and so on.
>
> This wasn't the first time that I've heard these estimates or the idea that
> Blu-ray will ultimately replace DVD, but it's the first that it sunk in that
> DVDs might be as hard to find in 2013 as VHS is to find today. And now that
> it's sunk in, I think the data crunchers might be a wee bit ahead of
> themselves on this one.
>
> The more I started to think on this, the more reasons I came up with as to
> why I think DVD will survive its impending death. If it interests you, I've
> included my thoughts below.
>
> 1. *This 2013 projection relies too heavily on the VHS model*
> It is only natural for researchers to use the DVD vs. VHS data when
> projecting the Blu-ray vs. DVD scenario, but it's not all comparing apples
> to apples. When it came to DVD vs. VHS, DVD was the vastly superior format
> in many ways. DVD was more durable than VHS, easier to store, allowed for
> special features and more content in the same box and the quality difference
> between DVD and VHS was so vast that anyone who saw a DVD could easily admit
> that it was better than VHS.
>
> When comparing Blu-ray to DVD, the main differences are increased visual
> and audio quality and more space on the disc to allow for more features to
> be included in the box. Unfortunately, the quality differences between
> Blu-ray and DVD are minor when compared to the quality differences between
> DVD and VHS. Also, according to Adams, while the number of HD homes in
> America will rise to 84% in 2012, only about 55% of US households will be
> using HDTV.
>
> In other words, only half of America will be taking advantage of the
> increased quality of high def TV over standard def TV. If that's the case,
> why would you expect a higher percentage to choose the higher def disc over
> the "standard def" disc?
>
> 1. *Blu-ray players are backwards compatible*
> Unless you have one of those DVD/VHS combo players, you can't play your
> VHS tapes on the same machine that you play your DVD movies. Blu-ray
> players, however, play DVD movies just fine.
>
> As someone with a vast DVD library, this was a big factor in my decision to
> enter the Blu-ray realm. As a bonus, most (if not all) Blu-ray players
> automatically upconvert DVDs to near HD quality.
>
> As a result, this means that I am less likely to replace my DVD copy with a
> Blu-ray version of the said movie automatically. Of course, I did have to
> get The Fifth Element <http://videoeta.com/movie/266> on Blu-ray, despite
> having it on every format imaginable already.
>
> 1. *Not all movies deserve Blu-ray treatment*
> Recently, Warner Bros. announced that Dumb and Dumber<http://videoeta.com/movie/302>was coming out on Blu-ray. No, really, it is. Far be it for me to debate the
> merits of a Jim Carrey <http://videoeta.com/person/13> movie being fit
> for Blu-ray, but suffice it to say, there's really not much of a difference
> between seeing it on DVD vs. Blu-ray. It's not going to make the fart jokes
> funnier.
>
>
>
> 1. *The cost and technology are a barrier to entry for some.*
> Granted, we are getting to a point where people are finally getting
> technologically savvy enough to be dangerous, but Blu-ray is another beast
> altogether.
>
> Currently, the high cost of entry is prohibiting mass adoption of Blu-ray,
> but there are rumblings <http://www.tvsnob.com/archives/022212.php> that
> Blu-ray players might cross under that magical price point of $200 as early
> as next month. Of course, these entry level machines are not created equal
> as they are (for the most part) on DVD.
>
> Two of the more compelling arguments in favor of Blu-ray are also two of
> the most technologically advanced features. They both require internet
> connectivity, if not constant connection. The first is the ability to update
> Blu-ray firmware automatically through the Internet connection. The second
> is the exciting BD-Live feature that allows viewer to download more content
> after buying the Blu-ray disc, as well as interact with other owners of the
> movie.
>
> Both of these features are sometimes lacking from entry-level players and
> even when they are available, the process of connecting to the Internet from
> a stand-alone player isn't all too intuitive.
>
> The Sony PS3 is really the key here as its dual function as a game system
> allows for constant Internet connection and ease of updates. Although
> currently, the PS3 trails the XBOX 360 in market penetration and the PS3 has
> yet to hit that magical $200 price point.
>
> At the end of the end, five years from now, only then will we truly be at a
> place where we can say with any sort of certainty what the 2013 will bring.
> But, as someone who has already replaced most, if not all, of my VHS with
> DVDs, I'm not looking forward to going through the process again so quickly.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> John F. Fossett
>
> Media Librarian
>
> Kitsap Regional Library
>
> Sylvan Way Branch
>
> 1301 Sylvan Way
>
> Bremerton, WA 98310
>
> (360)405-9101
>
> jfossett@krl.org
>
>
>
> *KRL Mission Statement*
>
> *Kitsap Regional Library serves the community as a center for lifelong
> learning and a steward of access to stories, information, and knowledge.*
>
>
>
>
>
> VIDEOLIB is intended to encourage the broad and lively discussion of issues
> relating to the selection, evaluation, acquisition,bibliographic control,
> preservation, and use of current and evolving video formats in libraries and
> related institutions. It is hoped that the list will serve as an effective
> working tool for video librarians, as well as a channel of communication
> between libraries,educational institutions, and video producers and
> distributors.
>
>

-- 
Best,
Dennis Doros
Milestone Film & Video
PO Box 128
Harrington Park, NJ 07640
Phone: 201-767-3117
email: milefilms@gmail.com
www.milestonefilms.com
www.exilesfilm.com
www.killerofsheep.com

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Dear John,<div><br></div><div>Hmmm. There are people who think even Blu-ray might go before THAT date! Five years is now an exceedingly long time for technology and the advent of Itune (and mp3) over CDs is proof that a great new concept can override any predictions.</div> <div><br></div><div>Dennis<br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Thu, Nov 6, 2008 at 2:18 PM, John Fossett <span dir="ltr">&lt;<a href="mailto:jfossett@krl.org">jfossett@krl.org</a>&gt;</span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex;">

<div lang="EN-US" link="blue" vlink="purple">

<div>

<p>Did anyone see this? Thoughts?</p>

<p>John</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p><a href="http://videoeta.com/news.html?id=2609&amp;rss=1" target="_blank">http://videoeta.com/news.html?id=2609&amp;rss=1</a> </p>

<p><span>BLU-RAY DISC NEWS</span></p>

<p><b><span style="font-size:24.0pt">Long live DVD... for five more years</span></b></p>

<p><span><img border="0" width="300" height="225" src="cid:image001.jpg@01C94001.634D8720" alt="http://videoeta.com/images/news/dvd_tombstone.jpg"></span><span></span></p>

<p><i><span>Posted October 23, 2008 at 12:09 PM </span></i><span></span></p>

<p><span>By <a href="http://videoeta.com/about/staff/john.html" target="_blank">John Couture</a></span></p>

<p><span>I was sitting in a meeting the other day, and someone mentioned that <a href="http://www.adamsmediaresearch.com/" target="_blank">Adams Media Research</a>, a well respected research firm in the home entertainment world, predicts that DVD will die a swift death sometime in 2013. That&#39;s five years from now.</span></p>

<p><span>I could drone on and on about Blu-ray market penetration trends and DVD adoption models and how they translate to the current situation, but the point of all that would be simply that DVD is already considered to be a mature product line and Blu-ray will inevitably replace the DVD much like DVD replaced VHS, CDs replaced cassette tapes and so on.</span></p>

<p><span>This wasn&#39;t the first time that I&#39;ve heard these estimates or the idea that Blu-ray will ultimately replace DVD, but it&#39;s the first that it sunk in that DVDs might be as hard to find in 2013 as VHS is to find today. And now that it&#39;s sunk in, I think the data crunchers might be a wee bit ahead of themselves on this one.</span></p>

<p><span>The more I started to think on this, the more reasons I came up with as to why I think DVD will survive its impending death. If it interests you, I&#39;ve included my thoughts below.</span></p>

<ol start="1" type="1"> <li><b><span>This 2013 projection relies too heavily on the VHS model</span></b><span> <br> It is only natural for researchers to use the DVD vs. VHS data when projecting the Blu-ray vs. DVD scenario, but it&#39;s not all comparing apples to apples. When it came to DVD vs. VHS, DVD was the vastly superior format in many ways. DVD was more durable than VHS, easier to store, allowed for special features and more content in the same box and the quality difference between DVD and VHS was so vast that anyone who saw a DVD could easily admit that it was better than VHS. </span></li> </ol>

<p style="margin-left:.5in"><span>When comparing Blu-ray to DVD, the main differences are increased visual and audio quality and more space on the disc to allow for more features to be included in the box. Unfortunately, the quality differences between Blu-ray and DVD are minor when compared to the quality differences between DVD and VHS. Also, according to Adams, while the number of HD homes in America will rise to 84% in 2012, only about 55% of US households will be using HDTV.</span></p>

<p style="margin-left:.5in"><span>In other words, only half of America will be taking advantage of the increased quality of high def TV over standard def TV. If that&#39;s the case, why would you expect a higher percentage to choose the higher def disc over the &quot;standard def&quot; disc? </span></p>

<ol start="2" type="1"> <li><b><span>Blu-ray players are backwards compatible</span></b><span> <br> Unless you have one of those DVD/VHS combo players, you can&#39;t play your VHS tapes on the same machine that you play your DVD movies. Blu-ray players, however, play DVD movies just fine. </span></li> </ol>

<p style="margin-left:.5in"><span>As someone with a vast DVD library, this was a big factor in my decision to enter the Blu-ray realm. As a bonus, most (if not all) Blu-ray players automatically upconvert DVDs to near HD quality.</span></p>

<p style="margin-left:.5in"><span>As a result, this means that I am less likely to replace my DVD copy with a Blu-ray version of the said movie automatically. Of course, I did have to get <a href="http://videoeta.com/movie/266" target="_blank">The Fifth Element</a> on Blu-ray, despite having it on every format imaginable already. </span></p>

<ol start="3" type="1"> <li><b><span>Not all movies deserve Blu-ray treatment</span></b><span> <br> Recently, Warner Bros. announced that <a href="http://videoeta.com/movie/302" target="_blank">Dumb and Dumber</a> was coming out on Blu-ray. No, really, it is. Far be it for me to debate the merits of a <a href="http://videoeta.com/person/13" target="_blank">Jim Carrey</a> movie being fit for Blu-ray, but suffice it to say, there&#39;s really not much of a difference between seeing it on DVD vs. Blu-ray. It&#39;s not going to make the fart jokes funnier.</span></li> </ol>

<p style="margin-left:.5in"><span>&nbsp;</span></p>

<ol start="4" type="1"> <li><b><span>The cost and technology are a barrier to entry for some.</span></b><span> <br> Granted, we are getting to a point where people are finally getting technologically savvy enough to be dangerous, but Blu-ray is another beast altogether. </span></li> </ol>

<p style="margin-left:.5in"><span>Currently, the high cost of entry is prohibiting mass adoption of Blu-ray, but <a href="http://www.tvsnob.com/archives/022212.php" target="_blank">there are rumblings</a> that Blu-ray players might cross under that magical price point of $200 as early as next month. Of course, these entry level machines are not created equal as they are (for the most part) on DVD.</span></p>

<p style="margin-left:.5in"><span>Two of the more compelling arguments in favor of Blu-ray are also two of the most technologically advanced features. They both require internet connectivity, if not constant connection. The first is the ability to update Blu-ray firmware automatically through the Internet connection. The second is the exciting BD-Live feature that allows viewer to download more content after buying the Blu-ray disc, as well as interact with other owners of the movie.</span></p>

<p style="margin-left:.5in"><span>Both of these features are sometimes lacking from entry-level players and even when they are available, the process of connecting to the Internet from a stand-alone player isn&#39;t all too intuitive.</span></p>

<p style="margin-left:.5in"><span>The Sony PS3 is really the key here as its dual function as a game system allows for constant Internet connection and ease of updates. Although currently, the PS3 trails the XBOX 360 in market penetration and the PS3 has yet to hit that magical $200 price point. </span></p>

<p><span>At the end of the end, five years from now, only then will we truly be at a place where we can say with any sort of certainty what the 2013 will bring. But, as someone who has already replaced most, if not all, of my VHS with DVDs, I&#39;m not looking forward to going through the process again so quickly.</span></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>John F. Fossett</p>

<p>Media Librarian</p>

<p>Kitsap Regional Library</p>

<p>Sylvan Way Branch</p>

<p>1301 Sylvan Way</p>

<p>Bremerton, WA 98310</p>

<p>(360)405-9101</p>

<p><a href="http://jfossett@krl.org" target="_blank"><span style="color:blue">jfossett@krl.org</span></a></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><i><span style="font-size:11.0pt">KRL Mission Statement</span></i></b></p>

<p align="center" style="text-align:center"><i><span style="font-size:11.0pt">Kitsap Regional Library serves the community as a center for lifelong learning and a steward of access to stories, information, and knowledge.</span></i><span style="font-size:11.0pt"></span></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

</div>

</div>

<br>VIDEOLIB is intended to encourage the broad and lively discussion of issues relating to the selection, evaluation, acquisition,bibliographic control, preservation, and use of current and evolving video formats in libraries and related institutions. It is hoped that the list will serve as an effective working tool for video librarians, as well as a channel of communication between libraries,educational institutions, and video producers and distributors.<br>

<br></blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><br>-- <br>Best,<br>Dennis Doros<br>Milestone Film &amp; Video<br>PO Box 128<br>Harrington Park, NJ 07640<br>Phone: 201-767-3117<br>email: <a href="mailto:milefilms@gmail.com">milefilms@gmail.com</a><br> <a href="http://www.milestonefilms.com">www.milestonefilms.com</a><br><a href="http://www.exilesfilm.com">www.exilesfilm.com</a><br><a href="http://www.killerofsheep.com">www.killerofsheep.com</a><br> </div>

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VIDEOLIB is intended to encourage the broad and lively discussion of issues relating to the selection, evaluation, acquisition,bibliographic control, preservation, and use of current and evolving video formats in libraries and related institutions. It is hoped that the list will serve as an effective working tool for video librarians, as well as a channel of communication between libraries,educational institutions, and video producers and distributors.

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