[Videolib] Long live DVD... for five more years

John Fossett (jfossett@krl.org)
Thu, 6 Nov 2008 11:18:26 -0800

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Did anyone see this? Thoughts?

John

=20

http://videoeta.com/news.html?id=3D2609&rss=3D1=20

BLU-RAY DISC NEWS

Long live DVD... for five more years

=20

Posted October 23, 2008 at 12:09 PM=20

By John Couture <http://videoeta.com/about/staff/john.html>=20

I was sitting in a meeting the other day, and someone mentioned that=20
Adams Media Research <http://www.adamsmediaresearch.com/> , a well
respected research firm in the home entertainment world, predicts that
DVD will die a swift death sometime in 2013. That's five years from now.

I could drone on and on about Blu-ray market penetration trends and DVD
adoption models and how they translate to the current situation, but the
point of all that would be simply that DVD is already considered to be a
mature product line and Blu-ray will inevitably replace the DVD much
like DVD replaced VHS, CDs replaced cassette tapes and so on.

This wasn't the first time that I've heard these estimates or the idea
that Blu-ray will ultimately replace DVD, but it's the first that it
sunk in that DVDs might be as hard to find in 2013 as VHS is to find
today. And now that it's sunk in, I think the data crunchers might be a
wee bit ahead of themselves on this one.

The more I started to think on this, the more reasons I came up with as
to why I think DVD will survive its impending death. If it interests
you, I've included my thoughts below.

1. This 2013 projection relies too heavily on the VHS model=20
It is only natural for researchers to use the DVD vs. VHS data
when projecting the Blu-ray vs. DVD scenario, but it's not all comparing
apples to apples. When it came to DVD vs. VHS, DVD was the vastly
superior format in many ways. DVD was more durable than VHS, easier to
store, allowed for special features and more content in the same box and
the quality difference between DVD and VHS was so vast that anyone who
saw a DVD could easily admit that it was better than VHS.=20

When comparing Blu-ray to DVD, the main differences are increased visual
and audio quality and more space on the disc to allow for more features
to be included in the box. Unfortunately, the quality differences
between Blu-ray and DVD are minor when compared to the quality
differences between DVD and VHS. Also, according to Adams, while the
number of HD homes in America will rise to 84% in 2012, only about 55%
of US households will be using HDTV.

In other words, only half of America will be taking advantage of the
increased quality of high def TV over standard def TV. If that's the
case, why would you expect a higher percentage to choose the higher def
disc over the "standard def" disc?=20

2. Blu-ray players are backwards compatible=20
Unless you have one of those DVD/VHS combo players, you can't
play your VHS tapes on the same machine that you play your DVD movies.
Blu-ray players, however, play DVD movies just fine.=20

As someone with a vast DVD library, this was a big factor in my decision
to enter the Blu-ray realm. As a bonus, most (if not all) Blu-ray
players automatically upconvert DVDs to near HD quality.

As a result, this means that I am less likely to replace my DVD copy
with a Blu-ray version of the said movie automatically. Of course, I did
have to get The Fifth Element <http://videoeta.com/movie/266> on
Blu-ray, despite having it on every format imaginable already.=20

3. Not all movies deserve Blu-ray treatment=20
Recently, Warner Bros. announced that Dumb and Dumber
<http://videoeta.com/movie/302> was coming out on Blu-ray. No, really,
it is. Far be it for me to debate the merits of a Jim Carrey
<http://videoeta.com/person/13> movie being fit for Blu-ray, but
suffice it to say, there's really not much of a difference between
seeing it on DVD vs. Blu-ray. It's not going to make the fart jokes
funnier.

=20

4. The cost and technology are a barrier to entry for some.=20
Granted, we are getting to a point where people are finally
getting technologically savvy enough to be dangerous, but Blu-ray is
another beast altogether.=20

Currently, the high cost of entry is prohibiting mass adoption of
Blu-ray, but there are rumblings
<http://www.tvsnob.com/archives/022212.php> that Blu-ray players might
cross under that magical price point of $200 as early as next month. Of
course, these entry level machines are not created equal as they are
(for the most part) on DVD.

Two of the more compelling arguments in favor of Blu-ray are also two of
the most technologically advanced features. They both require internet
connectivity, if not constant connection. The first is the ability to
update Blu-ray firmware automatically through the Internet connection.
The second is the exciting BD-Live feature that allows viewer to
download more content after buying the Blu-ray disc, as well as interact
with other owners of the movie.

Both of these features are sometimes lacking from entry-level players
and even when they are available, the process of connecting to the
Internet from a stand-alone player isn't all too intuitive.

The Sony PS3 is really the key here as its dual function as a game
system allows for constant Internet connection and ease of updates.
Although currently, the PS3 trails the XBOX 360 in market penetration
and the PS3 has yet to hit that magical $200 price point.=20

At the end of the end, five years from now, only then will we truly be
at a place where we can say with any sort of certainty what the 2013
will bring. But, as someone who has already replaced most, if not all,
of my VHS with DVDs, I'm not looking forward to going through the
process again so quickly.

=20

=20

=20

John F. Fossett

Media Librarian

Kitsap Regional Library

Sylvan Way Branch

1301 Sylvan Way

Bremerton, WA 98310

(360)405-9101

jfossett@krl.org

=20

KRL Mission Statement

Kitsap Regional Library serves the community as a center for lifelong
learning and a steward of access to stories, information, and knowledge.

=20

=20

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<body lang=3DEN-US link=3Dblue vlink=3Dpurple>

<div class=3DSection1>

<p class=3DMsoNormal>Did anyone see this? Thoughts?<o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal>John<o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><a =
href=3D"http://videoeta.com/news.html?id=3D2609&amp;rss=3D1">http://video=
eta.com/news.html?id=3D2609&amp;rss=3D1</a>
<o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-family:"Times New =
Roman","serif"'>BLU-RAY
DISC NEWS<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span
style=3D'font-size:24.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>Long =
live DVD...
for five more years<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-family:"Times New =
Roman","serif"'><img
border=3D0 width=3D300 height=3D225 id=3D"Picture_x0020_1"
src=3D"cid:image001.jpg@01C94001.634D8720"
alt=3D"http://videoeta.com/images/news/dvd_tombstone.jpg"></span><span
style=3D'font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><i><span style=3D'font-family:"Times New =
Roman","serif"'>Posted
October 23, 2008 at 12:09 PM </span></i><span =
style=3D'font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style=3D'font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>By <a
href=3D"http://videoeta.com/about/staff/john.html">John =
Couture</a><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style=3D'font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>I was sitting in a =
meeting the
other day, and someone mentioned that <a
href=3D"http://www.adamsmediaresearch.com/">Adams Media Research</a>, a =
well
respected research firm in the home entertainment world, predicts that =
DVD will
die a swift death sometime in 2013. That's five years from =
now.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style=3D'font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>I could drone on and on =
about
Blu-ray market penetration trends and DVD adoption models and how they
translate to the current situation, but the point of all that would be =
simply
that DVD is already considered to be a mature product line and Blu-ray =
will
inevitably replace the DVD much like DVD replaced VHS, CDs replaced =
cassette
tapes and so on.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style=3D'font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>This wasn't the first =
time that
I've heard these estimates or the idea that Blu-ray will ultimately =
replace
DVD, but it's the first that it sunk in that DVDs might be as hard to =
find in
2013 as VHS is to find today. And now that it's sunk in, I think the =
data
crunchers might be a wee bit ahead of themselves on this =
one.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style=3D'font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>The more I started to =
think on
this, the more reasons I came up with as to why I think DVD will survive =
its
impending death. If it interests you, I've included my thoughts =
below.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<ol start=3D1 type=3D1>
<li class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><b><span style=3D'font-family:"Times New =
Roman","serif"'>This
2013 projection relies too heavily on the VHS model</span></b><span
style=3D'font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'> <br>
It is only natural for researchers to use the DVD vs. VHS data when
projecting the Blu-ray vs. DVD scenario, but it's not all comparing =
apples
to apples. When it came to DVD vs. VHS, DVD was the vastly superior =
format
in many ways. DVD was more durable than VHS, easier to store, =
allowed for
special features and more content in the same box and the quality
difference between DVD and VHS was so vast that anyone who saw a =
DVD could
easily admit that it was better than VHS. <o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ol>

<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:.5in'><span style=3D'font-family:"Times New =
Roman","serif"'>When
comparing Blu-ray to DVD, the main differences are increased visual and =
audio
quality and more space on the disc to allow for more features to be =
included in
the box. Unfortunately, the quality differences between Blu-ray and DVD =
are
minor when compared to the quality differences between DVD and VHS. =
Also,
according to Adams, while the number of HD homes in America will rise to =
84% in
2012, only about 55% of US households will be using =
HDTV.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:.5in'><span style=3D'font-family:"Times New =
Roman","serif"'>In other
words, only half of America will be taking advantage of the increased =
quality
of high def TV over standard def TV. If that's the case, why would you =
expect a
higher percentage to choose the higher def disc over the &quot;standard
def&quot; disc? <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<ol start=3D2 type=3D1>
<li class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><b><span style=3D'font-family:"Times New =
Roman","serif"'>Blu-ray
players are backwards compatible</span></b><span =
style=3D'font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>
<br>
Unless you have one of those DVD/VHS combo players, you can't play =
your
VHS tapes on the same machine that you play your DVD movies. =
Blu-ray players,
however, play DVD movies just fine. <o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ol>

<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:.5in'><span style=3D'font-family:"Times New =
Roman","serif"'>As
someone with a vast DVD library, this was a big factor in my decision to =
enter
the Blu-ray realm. As a bonus, most (if not all) Blu-ray players =
automatically
upconvert DVDs to near HD quality.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:.5in'><span style=3D'font-family:"Times New =
Roman","serif"'>As a
result, this means that I am less likely to replace my DVD copy with a =
Blu-ray
version of the said movie automatically. Of course, I did have to get <a
href=3D"http://videoeta.com/movie/266">The Fifth Element</a> on Blu-ray, =
despite
having it on every format imaginable already. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<ol start=3D3 type=3D1>
<li class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><b><span style=3D'font-family:"Times New =
Roman","serif"'>Not
all movies deserve Blu-ray treatment</span></b><span =
style=3D'font-family:
"Times New Roman","serif"'> <br>
Recently, Warner Bros. announced that <a
href=3D"http://videoeta.com/movie/302">Dumb and Dumber</a> was =
coming out on
Blu-ray. No, really, it is. Far be it for me to debate the merits =
of a <a
href=3D"http://videoeta.com/person/13">Jim Carrey</a> movie being =
fit for
Blu-ray, but suffice it to say, there's really not much of a =
difference
between seeing it on DVD vs. Blu-ray. It's not going to make the =
fart
jokes funnier.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ol>

<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:.5in'><span style=3D'font-family:"Times New =
Roman","serif"'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<ol start=3D4 type=3D1>
<li class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1'><b><span style=3D'font-family:"Times New =
Roman","serif"'>The
cost and technology are a barrier to entry for =
some.</span></b><span
style=3D'font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'> <br>
Granted, we are getting to a point where people are finally getting
technologically savvy enough to be dangerous, but Blu-ray is =
another beast
altogether. <o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ol>

<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:.5in'><span style=3D'font-family:"Times New =
Roman","serif"'>Currently,
the high cost of entry is prohibiting mass adoption of Blu-ray, but <a
href=3D"http://www.tvsnob.com/archives/022212.php">there are =
rumblings</a> that
Blu-ray players might cross under that magical price point of $200 as =
early as
next month. Of course, these entry level machines are not created equal =
as they
are (for the most part) on DVD.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:.5in'><span style=3D'font-family:"Times New =
Roman","serif"'>Two of
the more compelling arguments in favor of Blu-ray are also two of the =
most
technologically advanced features. They both require internet =
connectivity, if
not constant connection. The first is the ability to update Blu-ray =
firmware
automatically through the Internet connection. The second is the =
exciting
BD-Live feature that allows viewer to download more content after buying =
the
Blu-ray disc, as well as interact with other owners of the =
movie.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:.5in'><span style=3D'font-family:"Times New =
Roman","serif"'>Both of
these features are sometimes lacking from entry-level players and even =
when
they are available, the process of connecting to the Internet from a
stand-alone player isn't all too intuitive.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:.5in'><span style=3D'font-family:"Times New =
Roman","serif"'>The Sony
PS3 is really the key here as its dual function as a game system allows =
for
constant Internet connection and ease of updates. Although currently, =
the PS3
trails the XBOX 360 in market penetration and the PS3 has yet to hit =
that
magical $200 price point. <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span
style=3D'font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"'>At the end of the end, =
five years
from now, only then will we truly be at a place where we can say with =
any sort
of certainty what the 2013 will bring. But, as someone who has already =
replaced
most, if not all, of my VHS with DVDs, I'm not looking forward to going =
through
the process again so quickly.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal>John F. Fossett<o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal>Media Librarian<o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal>Kitsap Regional Library<o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal>Sylvan Way Branch<o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal>1301 Sylvan Way<o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal>Bremerton, WA 98310<o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal>(360)405-9101<o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><a href=3D"jfossett@krl.org"><span =
style=3D'color:blue'>jfossett@krl.org</span></a><o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal align=3Dcenter =
style=3D'text-align:center'><b><i><span
style=3D'font-size:11.0pt'>KRL Mission =
Statement<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal align=3Dcenter style=3D'text-align:center'><i><span
style=3D'font-size:11.0pt'>Kitsap Regional Library serves the community =
as a
center for lifelong learning and a steward of access to stories, =
information,
and knowledge.</span></i><span =
style=3D'font-size:11.0pt'><o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p>

</div>

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VIDEOLIB is intended to encourage the broad and lively discussion of issues relating to the selection, evaluation, acquisition,bibliographic control, preservation, and use of current and evolving video formats in libraries and related institutions. It is hoped that the list will serve as an effective working tool for video librarians, as well as a channel of communication between libraries,educational institutions, and video producers and distributors.

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