This is one of a series of research guides produced by the Thomas J. Long Business & Economics Library at the University of California, Berkeley.
Short-term projections are produced by a variety of governmental, academic and private research organizations. Forecasting models use a standard set of macroeconomic statistics including GDP, CPI, unemployment rate, corporate profits, change in business inventories, housing starts, interest rates, exports, personal savings rate and others.
Some forecasts are very detailed and analyze the components of these statistics; most also include some additional data elements particular to the methodological point of view. In addition to macroeconomic forecasts, there are also projections of demographic and commercial trends which measure population changes, consumer attitudes, and other factors crucial to market research and business planning.
The following list describes the topical and geographic coverage of each source, the level of depth of the analysis, and also includes any unusual data elements and indicators covered in it. Unless otherwise noted, all call number locations are in the Long Library.
Last updated: 07/2005.
Campus Resource: for access, you must either be on campus, or connect through the Library Proxy Server.
Consumer Confidence Survey
Conference Board. Monthly.
Contains Consumer Confidence Index, 6 to 12-month consumer expectations, Consumer Confidence by Region. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is classified as a leading economic indicator by the U. S. Department of Commerce and is also carried in that agency's monthly publication Survey of Current Business.
SRI microfiche R 4105-4 Reference
The Economic Outlook
University of Michigan: Department of Economics. Annual.
Proceedings of the Annual Conference on the Economic Outlook held in Ann Arbor.
HC101 .M42P3 Reference
Financial Forecast Center
Six month forecasts for major stock indexes, money rates, foreign exchange, and general economic indicators. Also includes historical data.
Forecast of the Nation
Georgia State University: Economic Forecasting Center. Quarterly.
Presents forecasts for over 30 economic indicators of the U.S. economy, shown quarterly for 3-4 years. Source of this forecasting model is a non-governmental research organization. Data elements include: Factiva and NY Composite Indexes, mortgage rates, government purchases.
SRI microfiche U1880-1 Reference
Global Market Information Database
Euromonitor. A database providing forecasts of production and sales for consumer products.
Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems
Graceway Publishing. Quarterly.
Publishes articles geared to the interests of managers and business statisticians. Each issue also features the Business and Economic Outlook , which presents consensus forecasts for the international economy and for corporate earnings. Also provides a synopsis of the Kent Economic Survey (KEDI). Data elements include: international economic indicators, exchange rates, bond rates.
Unbound issues in Current Periodicals; bound volumes in Stacks: HB3730 .J65
Livingston Survey
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Twice yearly.
It is the oldest continuous survey of economists' expectations. It summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia.
Monthly Economic Forecast
Wachovia Securities. Monthly.
Short-term forecasts for basic U.S. and international economic indicators.
National Economic Projections Series (NEPS)
NPA Data Services, Inc. Annual.
Issued as a three-volume set of data tables, with accompanying narrative. NEPS focuses on the long-term outlook; a diversity of annual projections are calculated for the coming 25 years. The forecasts are based on a sophisticated econometric model which studies three major forces behind economic growth: labor, capital formation, and technological innovation.
HC101 .N42N3 Reference
OECD Economic Outlook
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Bi-annual.
Contains overall analysis of the latest economic trends and short-term projections for OECD member countries. Data elements include: macroeconomic effects of energy market developments, foreign trade, world trade and payments summary.
Recession-Recovery Watch
Columbia University: Center for International Business Cycle Research. Quarterly.
Not a forecast itself, but provides data on approximately 70 economic indicators used to analyze business cycle trends. Includes a table showing dates and duration of economic slowdowns, with lead or lag of corporate bond yields. Data elements include: signals of recession, investment commitments and inventories, productivity, stock prices.
SRI microfiche U1245-2 Reference
Regional Economic Projections Series (REPS)
NPA Data Services, Inc. Annual.
For regions, states, counties and MSAs, analyzes the outlook for economic and demographic growth. Population, employment and income data are measured. Both historical time series long-term projections are given. (See National Economic Projections Series for nationwide macro-economic data.)
HC101 .N418 Reference
Survey of Consumers
University of Michigan, Institute of Social Research. Monthly.
Reports changes in consumer attitudes and expectations for their own finances and the economy.
SRI microfiche U7475-2 Reference
Survey of Professional Forecasters
Federal Reserve Bank of Phildelphia. Quarterly.
The oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States.
Trends & Projections
Standard & Poor's. Monthly.
Presents forecasts for the major economic indicators, as well as for some major industries. Data elements include: capacity utilization, housing starts, interest rates.
Circulation desk, request item #17
UCLA Andreson Business Forecast for the Nation and California
UCLA Anderson Graduate School of Management. Quarterly.
Provides detailed forecasts with narrative analysis.
HC106.8 .U353 Reference
U.S. Industry & Trade Outlook
DRI/McGraw Hill. Annual.
Prospects for over 350 manufacturing and service industries are combined with the federal macro-economic forecast for the nation as a whole. Statistical tables covering historical, current and projected data, plus import and export trade ratios are standard features of each industry analysis. Data elements include shipments, inventories, value of imports and exports, consumption, etc.
HC106.5 .A146 Reference
World Economic Outlook
International Monetary Fund. Annual.
World Economic and Social Survey
United Nations. Annual.
Published since 1948, analyzes current and emerging issues of a macroeconomic, microeconomic, and social nature including international trade, resource transfers, energy, employment, and population dynamics. A statistical annex contains standardized economic and financial data pertaining to the analytical groupings of countries described in the preceding discussions.
HC59 .A25W6 Reference